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Baccarat is a gambling card game. It is supposed to have been introduced into France from Italy during the reign of Charles VIII of France (ruled 1483-1498). There are three accepted variants of the game: baccarat chemin de fer (railway), baccarat banque (or a deux tableaux), and punto banco (or North American baccarat). Cards are war, in disguise of a sport. - Charles Lamb, Essays of Elia (1832) This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. Gaming machines, such as slot machines, are usually played by one player at a time and do not require the involvement of casino employees to play. Knock-Out Blackjack, Olaf Vancura and Ken Fuchs, 1998, ISBN 0929712315 She hired an attorney who claimed she was not responsible because of an old English common law doctrine dating back to Queen Ann. They also sought to bar credit card companies from collecting gambling debts from California residents because it is illegal in the United States. The suit was settled before actually going to court. In the settlement her creditors agreed to drop their claims and a gambling software company paid her $225,000 lawyers bill. Some claim that the gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias produced by a psychological heuristic called the representativeness heuristic. Craps These are common misunderstandings that arise in everyday reasoning about probabilities, many of which have been studied in great detail. Many people lose money while gambling due to their erroneous belief in this fallacy. Although the gambler's fallacy can apply to any form of gambling, it is easiest to illustrate by considering coin-tossing; its rebuttal can be summarised with the phrase "the coin doesn't have a memory".
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Casino games [edit] The Theory of Blackjack, Peter Griffin, 1996 (1979), ISBN 0929712129 Keno Consider a flipping coin game with two players where each player having 50% chance of winning each flip. After a flip the loser transfers one penny to the winner. The game ends when one player has all the pennies. If the number of flips is infinite, the probability that the game will eventually end is 100%. If player one has n1 pennies and player two n2 pennies , the chances P1 and P2 that players one and two, respectively, will end penniless are:
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